Axis Bank's results for the fourth quarter of the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23) were skewed due to large one-off charges related to its acquisition of Citi's retail business. Axis reported a loss of Rs 5,730 crore on account of exceptional items of Rs 12,350 crore (net of tax) towards Citi's acquisition, policy harmonisation etc. Excluding this one-off, the adjusted net profit or profit after tax (PAT) would be Rs 6,630 crore, up 61 per cent year-on-year (YoY).
The banking sector and particularly the banks in India, is probably the one industry that has not only managed to survive the economic slowdown but even thrive during these hard times. But how? Increased CASA deposits!
As the fight for deposits intensifies, the cost of money will rise and the margin will be under further pressure, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
State-owned Punjab & Sind Bank is targeting salary accounts to boost the share of low-cost deposits. Swarup Saha, managing director and chief executive officer of the New Delhi-based lender, tells Manojit Saha that the bank may see gross non-performing assets (NPAs) fall below 8 per cent if there is resolution of the stressed assets.
'We plan to launch new initiatives, including cash flow-based lending, to ensure borrowers are not burdened and can access funds more quickly.'
The foreign lender's profit after tax was Rs 2,960 crore
IDFC First Bank delivered good results in the first quarter of this financial year (Q1FY24), but some analysts are concerned the bank is fully-valued. So, there has been profit-booking after a price rise. Growth went side-by-side with a focus on cutting interest costs and exposure to high non-performing infrastructure loans. The mortgage book is 28 per cent, of which 24 per cent is home loans and loans against property.
The April-June quarter (Q1) of the current financial year (FY25) may be soft for banks with loan growth moderation, net interest margin (NIM) pressures, and higher staff and credit costs inching up, according to analysts. Credit growth could ease due to the lagged impact of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) tightening and deposit growth has weakened, and the current account and savings account (CASA) ratio has declined 10-370 basis points (bps) quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) for many banks.
>It's not easy to predict the market. But there are at least two positive factors to back the PSU banks, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'It's a debatable topic, and we will submit our comments to the RBI by June 15.'
Analysts are of the view that long-term investors could continue to hold the stock, irrespective of the MSCI development.
Feature for feature, bank FDs are indeed better than debt funds today, mainly thanks to Ms Sitharaman, notes Debashis Basu.
Engineering and construction major Larsen & Toubro (L&T) reported a 25 per cent rise in net profit attributable to the owners of the company for the January-March quarter of 2024-25, owing to higher revenues and an exceptional gain. For the quarter under review, L&T posted a consolidated net profit of Rs 5,497.3 crore, while revenue rose 10.9 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 74,392.28 crore.
The Reserve Bank India's (RBI's) decision to ban the onboarding of new accounts on the "bob World" mobile digital platform led to a selloff in the Bank of Baroda (BoB) stock. The stock of the public sector bank dropped by around 3 per cent. The central bank cited "material supervisory concerns"; news reports claimed mobile numbers were randomly linked to accounts to purportedly inflate registrations on bob World.
A large part of the accretion to fixed deposits till March 16, 2007 was on account of a flight of funds from the low-cost CASA.
Given the relevance of bank deposits for Indian savers, whether the regulator would permit linking savings interest rate to a repo-like structure needs to be seen, as a move of this nature could increase volatility in savings also.
'Our unsecured loan is not exactly unsecured. It is backed by cash flow of customers.'
For banks to cut loan rates, the cost of deposits needs to come down, and there is no sign of that happening.
The bad assets or gross NPAs of commercial banks fell to a 12-year low of 2.8 per cent in March 2024 and may go down further to 2.5 per cent by the end of the current fiscal, said the RBI's Financial Stability Report (FSR) released on Thursday. Scheduled Commercial Banks' (SCBs) gross non-performing assets (GNPA) ratio fell to 2.8 per cent, and the net non-performing assets (NNPA) ratio to 0.6 per cent at the end of March 2024. "The asset quality of SCBs recorded sustained improvement, and their GNPA ratio moderated to a 12-year low in March 2024. Their NNPA ratio too improved to a record low," said the June FSR.
Despite a largely stable December quarter, investors booked profit in shares of IndusInd Bank (IIB) as an increase in slippages took them by surprise. Analysts, on their part, believe investors may, now, wait for actual delivery on slippage decline, potentially limiting near-term upside. "The management has indicated that corporate slippages (from legacy stressed book) have ended and inch up in consumer finance slippages was more one-off, and should meaningfully improve Q4FY24 onwards.
'They have since only tried to improve systems. Also, with regulatory guidance from time to time, we are in a position to assess a situation and react in time.'
Axis Bank has strengthened its positioning -- on both the assets and liability side -- and it may be set to deliver sustained improvement in performance. The valuation gap between Axis Bank (which trades at 1.4x core book value (or BV) and peers like ICICI Bank (valued at 2x BV) is expected to narrow.
ICICI Bank share price hits record high, ICICI Bank m-cap tops $100 billion: Shares of ICICI Bank have been on a steady uptrend, rising 30 per cent over the past one year; not far behind Axis Bank stock that surged over 34 per cent during the period. The BSE Sensex, meanwhile, is up 25 per cent, and the BSE BANKEX 22 per cent in the last one year, ACE Equity data shows. On Wednesday, June 26, ICICI Bank shares hit a fresh record high for the third consecutive day, rising 2 per cent on the BSE in the intraday trade.
Higher returns, more liquidity draw individual investors to savings accounts.
'If individual stocks start falling 25% to 30% or more, then I doubt how many of them will be able to withstand that (kind of selloff). That is when you'll see panic coming in.'
Reserve Bank of India Governor Urjit Patel on Saturday exhorted banks to reduce their lending rates to push credit demand in laggard segments, saying banks have benefited from influx of low-cost deposits and its previous repo rate cuts.
'We are committed to achieving the targets we had outlined.'
We'll need to wait a couple of years to see how many restructured loans turn bad and whether some banks fall victim to their obsession for growth, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Banks seems to be upset over RBI's move over rate cut.
Axis Bank's acquisition of Citibank's consumer finance business for Rs 12,325 crore - the second biggest deal in the Indian banking sector - is seen as a good deal at a good price. The acquisition enables Axis Bank to close the gap with competition in some key segments such as credit cards. At the same time, there are some key issues that are crucial for the deal's success, apart from the fact that it will take some time for Axis to reap the full harvest of its investment.
'It is observed that some of our branches are already losing good balances in their savings deposits as well as fixed deposits, which are maturing, to the other banks.'
HDFC Bank Q1FY24 results analysis: Shares of HDFC Bank, the world's seventh largest financial entity, have advanced 2 per cent in two days, as against 1 per cent rise in the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex, after the lender reported its April-June quarter (Q1) results for financial year 2023-24 (FY24) on July 17. The S&P BSE Bankex index, meanwhile, has gained 1.3 per cent. While the near-term stock performance may remain sideways due to merger-related hiccups, analysts remain bullish on the stock's long-term prospects.
In January 2017, the growth in total premium was Rs 13,138 crore, against Rs 10,284 crore in January 2016, a growth of 28 per cent.
The net non-performing assets on December 31, 2016 were Rs 20,155 crore compared to Rs 16,483 crore at September 30, 2016
The National Company Law Appellate Tribunal (NCLAT) on Tuesday stayed a Rs 169 crore penalty imposed on Oravel Stays Ltd by the competition commission of India (CCI). Oravel Stays Ltd operates under the brand name Oyo. However, a two-member NCLAT bench while admitting the appeal filed by Oravel Stays Ltd (OSL) directed to deposit of 10 per cent of the penalty amount within six weeks.
FinMin plans tougher targets for bad loans, Casa and others in performance-linked pay for senior management.
ICICI Bank reported good results for the October-December 2023 quarter (Q3), with 24 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in profit after tax (PAT). Net interest margin (NIM) dropped 10 bps quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) to 4.43 per cent. Credit growth was at 19 per cent Y-o-Y (4 per cent Q-o-Q), while deposit growth was at 19 per cent Y-o-Y (3 per cent Q-o-Q).
Analysts say loan growth, Casa ratio and exposure to sectors under pressure did not indicate any stress at United Bank.
HDFC Bank has ensured that no bank will be able to match them in the near future without bleeding on margins.
Bank of Baroda Q4 results: Key brokerages have raised their target prices on Bank of Baroda after the state-owned lender posted better-than-expected March quarter (Q4FY23) results. Analysts now see up to 29 per cent upside in the stock from a one-year perspective as they believe BoB is well-placed among the large public banks with nearly all key business metrics moving closer to the top-tier banks. Valuations, too, remain attractive despite steady strong quarterly performances.
